Putin is getting into trouble! Russia is being isolated from the world, read this special report

Sydney. One of Vladimir Putin’s often cited principles is that ‘sometimes it is necessary to be alone to prove that you are right’. As Putin’s unfortunate invasion of Ukraine continues, he appears to be moving towards implementing his principle. Putin is increasingly isolated, not only on the world stage, but also inside Russia. The longer the war goes on, the more difficult it will be for them to extricate themselves from it with any credibility at home or abroad.

In a recent UN General Assembly resolution condemning Russia’s “referendum” in Ukraine, which heavily criticized Putin, the resolution voted 143 in favor, 35 did not participate and five were in opposition (including Russia itself). If the vote is to be considered a sign, Russia has only four friends: North Korea, Syria, Belarus and Nicaragua, and powerful countries with influence over Moscow, including China and India, who did not participate in the vote, publicly criticized Putin’s war. About gave a sign of his uneasiness.

Belarus supported Moscow
In the Middle East, where Moscow has sought to build diplomatic clout around its highly dubious support for non-intervention, not all members of the Commonwealth of Independent States participated in the referendum, with the exception of Georgia and Moldova. Voted in favor of condemning Russia, and Belarus voted with Moscow.

home front
On the domestic front, his picture is that of a different leader, who is finding it difficult to control rival factions. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov have been targeted in recent criticisms of Russia’s top military leadership. The main criticism focused on Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group (allegedly a “private” military company, but actually a military wing of the state) and Ramzan Kadyrov, currently the head of the Chechen Republic of Russia.

Such criticisms have created problems for Putin. He had previously been able to comfortably handle criticism from the lower levels of Russia’s elite cadres: the army, intelligence services and other parts of the Russian bureaucracy. But Shoigu is one of the most powerful people in Russia after Putin. While sacking him would rid Putin of a potential rival, it would also disturb a delicately balanced cycle of patronage and power, which could only turn towards Putin.

Where does Putin go from here?
So how does Putin get himself out of this mess of his own making? The only way to realistically do this is to win the war in Ukraine, or at least get enough concessions that he can project his victory. However, it is not very likely. Putin has broadened the parameters of the conflict by supporting the statement that he is at war not only with Ukraine, but with NATO.

Will only negotiate with the new President of Russia – Zelensky
Another problem for Putin is that Ukraine is unlikely to accommodate Putin on the battlefield or at the bargaining table. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has already said he would only hold talks with Russia’s “new president”. They also doubled Ukraine’s war objectives, which equated to the complete liberation of its territory. The massive attack on the Kerch Bridge, sometimes called Putin’s ‘symbol of victory for Crimea’, was a direct insult to Putin, who personally oversaw its construction. In addition to undermining Russian morale, it also symbolized a feeling among Ukrainians that the war had changed.

Putin’s decision was indifferent
Finally, Russia’s military situation in Ukraine now looks hopeless. His army is tired and they are retreating. Putin’s decision to appoint Sergei Surovikin, the general who ordered indiscriminate bombings in Syria and Chechnya to oversee Russia’s war, has been indifferent. Indeed, the strategy of large cruise missile attacks on Ukraine’s residential areas and power generation facilities has had the opposite effect: it made Ukrainians more motivated to fight, and was seen globally as Surovikin’s fret. Is.

There was no victory on the battlefield and Surovikin has so far fired missiles worth about US$400-700 million in an attempt to target the Ukrainian population. It also includes attacks on cities that Russia allegedly annexed to its territory. In this way it was an attack on its own area and its people. The result is that, unless Putin chooses to proceed dramatically, his only option is to find a way to save face, by crossing the nuclear threshold (which is itself fraught with risk).

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Tags:, Vladimir Putin