March 23, 2023

Climate Change Even Small Temperature Rise Can Lead To Large Scale Forced Migration Says Study

3 min read


An increase in temperature by one degree has a profound effect on the Earth’s climate.
In vulnerable countries like Somalia, this increase will increase the displacement tenfold.
This is a matter of great concern for countries that are already deficient in rainfall.

The effects of climate change in the world usually get more attention on the weather and its quick effects. Even in the far-reaching consequences, there is more mention of problems like environment, extinction of species, health and submergence due to increasing heat. But one aspect that gets less attention is Forced Migration of People. A new study has found that just one degree Celsius increase in temperature can increase the number of displaced people in the world by 10 times. This result has come out in the research. In which the migration in Somalia was studied due to the effect of war, weather and drought.

who has the most impact
According to research led by the University of Oxford, a rainfall deficit of 50 millimeters per month could cause displacement to double. This displacement does not become any more reason to increase any war or dispute. Dr Lisa Thalheimer, research associate at Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute and Climate Econometrics team and head of the study, says the situation for herders and farmers in Somalia is very fragile.

just a small change
Here only one degree Celsius increase in normal temperature, whether continuously or repeatedly in a few months, is enough to dry up the pastures and reduce the yield of crops. Research shows that these seemingly small temperature changes can have huge effects, forcing communities to leave their homes.

matter of concern
Dr Lisa says her research on Somalia has found that a warming of one degree Celsius will increase the estimated displacement tenfold. It is a matter of great concern that even a slight increase in temperature has such a big effect. It highlights how climate change could impact drought-vulnerable areas of Africa.

Farmers and herders are more affected due to increase in temperature and less rain in Somalia. (Representational photo: Wikimedia Commons)

what if
The study found that a one degree increase in local monthly temperature alone would increase the estimated displacement by 1098 percent. If the average monthly rainfall drops from 100 mm to 50 mm, the displaced population in Somalia will double. Mortis Schwarz, also from Oxford’s Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, who was also involved in the study, says climate change is already being observed in these vulnerable areas and is likely to worsen.

Read also: Geopolitical changes are dividing the world into 3 groups, claims German expert

some measures will work
Schwarz noted that the research suggests that exploring adaptation measures, building local capacity and arranging for rapid delivery of humanitarian assistance will help prevent future mass displacements and reduce the risk of extreme weather or war. Prevention can also avoid the situation of complete destruction.

Earth, Climate Change, Population, Research, Science, temperature rise forced migration, migration, displacement of people, weather, drought, conflicts,

The role of conflict in the displacement in Somalia was also studied in the study. (Representational photo: Wikimedia Commons)

conflict and displacement
Detailed analysis has also revealed that conflict or war is the biggest driver of displacement. Understanding the role of conflict in displacement is a difficult task. This may also include drought and other factors. It has also been investigated in the research whether displacement increases the possibility of conflict on reaching another place, or the pressure of lack of resources like food and water. He found that this is not the case.

Read also: Ancient global warming events tell Earth’s future

The researchers found that they also saw little effect on conflict caused by people coming to a place. This information is new and shows that it is wrong to believe that displacement gives rise to more conflict and conflict. The study, published in Global Environmental Change, made a detailed study of local data from 18 different areas of Samolia, in which the reasons for the displacement of two million people were searched in two years.

Tags: climate change, earth, population, research, Science

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